Dairy Reproductive Economic Analysis

V.E. Cabrera    

 

This is a Markov-chain model that simulates a dairy herd and their replacements for nine lactations: from the moment of the first calving to the ninth parturition. The model follows monthly probabilistic events of aging, culling, mortality, becoming pregnant, having an abortion, calving, and starting a next lactation. A defined lactation curve determines the milk production depending on lactation number, month in milk, and reproductive status. Cows being culled and dying are replaced the next month, so the herd population remains constant. The model performs a number of iterations until the herd population reaches a "steady state." Steady state of the herd population occurs when the proportion of cows in each specific state (lactation, month in milk, reproductive status) do not change from one iteration (month) to the next.

The model uses pre-defined (or user-defined) probabilities of reproduction, abortion, culling, and mortality to simulate a proportion of cows from one state to the next. For instance, a nonpregnant cow could become pregnant, be culled, or die and a pregnant cow could abort, be culled, die, or calve at the end of gestation. These events occur monthly for each cow in the herd. The value of a reproductive program is then calculated every month for each cow in the herd as the sum of five factors: milk income over feed cost (IOFC), culling cost, mortality cost, income from newborns (calves), and cost of the reproductive program:

Value of Reproductive Program = Income Over Feed Cost + Culling Cost + Mortality Cost + Income from Newborn + Reproductive Program Cost

Once the herd population reaches steady state, the value of the studied reproductive program is calculated as the sum product of the value of the reproductive program in each cow state times the proportion of cows in each state. Different reproductive programs yield different herd structures and consequently different economic values.

Following the tabs in this application you can define a reproductive program, edit the expected probabilities of abortion, culling, and mortality, and define other managerial and economic parameters. An option to download and manipulate these values in a spreadsheet format and then to upload it is also available.

Once you have defined the input parameters you could run the model. The results will be displayed as a "snapshot" of the expected herd at "steady state" and the monthly and total value of the reproductive program based on the five parameters defined above.

Acknowledgement

This project is supported by Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Competitive Grant No. 2010-85122-20612 from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture. UW Madison logo
This project is supported by US Department of Agriculture Hatch project to V.E. Cabrera WIS01577. UW Madison logo
Download Parameter Excel File


Upload Parameters as Excel File
Upload the Excel File:


Current File/Data Status Using Data from Default Parameters File on Server


Month
in
Milk
Lactation
1
Lactation
2
Lactation
3
Lactation
4
Lactation
5
Lactation
6
Lactation
7
Lactation
8
Lactation
9
Preg
Per
Month
(%/mo)
Cost
Per
Month
$/cow/mo
Preg
Per
Month
(%/mo)
Cost
Per
Month
$/cow/mo
Preg
Per
Month
(%/mo)
Cost
Per
Month
$/cow/mo
Preg
Per
Month
(%/mo)
Cost
Per
Month
$/cow/mo
Preg
Per
Month
(%/mo)
Cost
Per
Month
$/cow/mo
Preg
Per
Month
(%/mo)
Cost
Per
Month
$/cow/mo
Preg
Per
Month
(%/mo)
Cost
Per
Month
$/cow/mo
Preg
Per
Month
(%/mo)
Cost
Per
Month
$/cow/mo
Preg
Per
Month
(%/mo)
Cost
Per
Month
$/cow/mo
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

Decision Criteria for Reproductive Failure Culling
Month in lactation (threshold) to stop reproductive services (MIM)
Minimum amount of milk (threshold) produced (lb/cow/day)



Abortion rate (% abortion/cow/month in pregnancy)
Month in Pregnancy
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Lactation 1 
Lactation 2 
Lactation 3 
Lactation 4 
Lactation 5 
Lactation 6 
Lactation 7 
Lactation 8 
Lactation 9 



Month
in
Milk
Culling rate (% cull/cow/month in milk)
  Lactation 1 Lactation 2 Lactation 3 Lactation 4 Lactation 5 Lactation 6 Lactation 7 Lactation 8 Lactation 9
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Cull Parameters
Culling rate for pregnant cows as a proportion of the culling rate of the open cows (%)
Mortality rate as a proportion of the culling rate (%)



MilkBot Lactation Curves Parameters by Lactation Milkbot
a=Scale b=Ramp c=Offset d=Decay
Lactation 1
Lactation 2
Lactation 3
Lactation 4
Lactation 5
Lactation 6
Lactation 7
Lactation 8
Lactation 9




Test Lactation Curve Parameters
Scale
Min(0)
Max(150)
Ramp
Min(0)
Max(60)
Offset
Min(-5)
Max(+6)
Decay
Min(0)
Max(0.01)




For more information please visit Exploring Pregnancy Timing on Income Over Feed Cost
Month
in
Pregnancy
Decrease
in
Milk
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

Parameters
Body Weight of Lactating Cows  lb/animal Average Weight of Lactating Animals
Milk FAT Content  % Average Butterfat on Milk
Milk Price  $/lb milk Average Price Received
Feed Price  $/lb feed Average Price Received
Heifer Replacement Value  $/heifer Average Price paid for Pregnant Heifer
Salvage Value of Culling Animal  $/cow Average Value Received for culled cow
Born Calf Price  $/animal Average Value of Newborn
Time for Dry-Off  months Cow will not produce after N months


Number of Cows  Lactating & Dry



Total Number of Cows 0
Iterations Performed 0
Reached Steady State NO


Total Revenues & Costs
IOFC Cull Repro Calves Net Return
$/herd/month 0 0 0 0 0
$/herd/day 0 0 0 0 0
$/cow/year 0 0 0 0 0

Month in
Milk
Month in Pregnancy
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9     Revenues & Costs ($)
Lactation 1 Cull Cows       IOFC   Cull    Repro   Calves  
1                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
2                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
3                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
4                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
5                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
6                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
7                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
8                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
9                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
10                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
11                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
12                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
13                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
14                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
15                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
16                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
17                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
18                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
19                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
20                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
21                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
22                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
23                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
24                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
25                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
Lactation 2 Cull Cows       IOFC   Cull    Repro   Calves  
1                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
2                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
3                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
4                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
5                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
6                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
7                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
8                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
9                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
10                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
11                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
12                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
13                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
14                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
15                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
16                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
17                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
18                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
19                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
20                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
21                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
22                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
23                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
24                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
25                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
Lactation 3 Cull Cows       IOFC   Cull    Repro   Calves  
1                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
2                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
3                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
4                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
5                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
6                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
7                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
8                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
9                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
10                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
11                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
12                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
13                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
14                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
15                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
16                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
17                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
18                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
19                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
20                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
21                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
22                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
23                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
24                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
25                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
Lactation 4 Cull Cows       IOFC   Cull    Repro   Calves  
1                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
2                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
3                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
4                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
5                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
6                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
7                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
8                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
9                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
10                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
11                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
12                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
13                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
14                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
15                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
16                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
17                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
18                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
19                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
20                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
21                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
22                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
23                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
24                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
25                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
Lactation 5 Cull Cows       IOFC   Cull    Repro   Calves  
1                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
2                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
3                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
4                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
5                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
6                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
7                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
8                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
9                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
10                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
11                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
12                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
13                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
14                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
15                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
16                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
17                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
18                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
19                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
20                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
21                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
22                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
23                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
24                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
25                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
Lactation 6 Cull Cows       IOFC   Cull    Repro   Calves  
1                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
2                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
3                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
4                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
5                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
6                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
7                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
8                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
9                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
10                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
11                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
12                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
13                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
14                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
15                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
16                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
17                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
18                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
19                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
20                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
21                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
22                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
23                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
24                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
25                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
Lactation 7 Cull Cows       IOFC   Cull    Repro   Calves  
1                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
2                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
3                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
4                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
5                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
6                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
7                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
8                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
9                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
10                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
11                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
12                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
13                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
14                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
15                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
16                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
17                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
18                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
19                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
20                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
21                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
22                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
23                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
24                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
25                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
Lactation 8 Cull Cows       IOFC   Cull    Repro   Calves  
1                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
2                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
3                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
4                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
5                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
6                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
7                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
8                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
9                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
10                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
11                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
12                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
13                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
14                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
15                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
16                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
17                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
18                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
19                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
20                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
21                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
22                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
23                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
24                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
25                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
Lactation 9 Cull Cows       IOFC   Cull    Repro   Calves  
1                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
2                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
3                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
4                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
5                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
6                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
7                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
8                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
9                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
10                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
11                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
12                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
13                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
14                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
15                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
16                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
17                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
18                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
19                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
20                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
21                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
22                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
23                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
24                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00
25                              0.00    0.000.000.000.00

Find the economic value of improving reproductive performance



           21-d Preg Risk
(%)
         Repro Cost
($/cow/mo)
Current Repro Program         
    
Goal Repro Program         
    




Analysis Results

Program 21-d Preg Risk
(%)
Repro Cost
($/cow/mo)
IOFC
($/cow/year)
Cull
($/cow/year)
Repro
($/cow/year)
Calves
($/cow/year)
Net Return
($/cow/year)
Current Repro Program 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Goal Repro Program 0 0          


Economic value of improving pregnancy risk from 0% to 0% is $  /cow/year.


Dr. Victor E. Cabrera
© 2018 Dairy Management
UW-Extension, University of Wisconsin-Madison
DairyMGT 
 Designed By : Nikhil Suryanarayanan  Designed By : Nikhil Surya