The old rules of global trade and diplomacy aren't just bending. They're breaking.
We aren't watching a slow, predictable transition into a new era. It's a messy, immediate rupture. Superpowers are throwing their weight around, weaponizing supply chains, and threatening to shred long-standing agreements. If smaller, stable democracies don't pull together immediately, they risk getting crushed in the gears of big-power politics.
That's the stark message Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered at Trinity College Dublin just days before the G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains, France. Standing alongside Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin, Carney made a direct play for a tighter alliance between Canada and Europe. It's an aggressive diplomatic offensive designed to build a unified front of middle powers before walking into what promises to be a highly volatile G7 meeting.
The Illusion of the Rules-Based Order
For decades, countries like Canada and Ireland built their prosperity on a predictable foundation. You sign a trade deal, you follow the rules, and disputes get settled through multilateral institutions.
That foundation is gone.
Carney didn't name names during his speech at the launch of the De Chastelain Public Lecture series, but everyone in the room knew who he meant. The shadow over the upcoming summit belongs to U.S. President Donald Trump, who has thrown the G7 into chaos by threatening not to renew the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (USMCA) and publicly referring to Canada as America's "51st state."
When the world's biggest economy decides that rules are optional, middle powers lose their shield. Economic integration has been weaponized. Tariffs are used as political threats, and vital trading channels are treated like leverage. Relying on a single giant neighbor for economic survival is no longer a viable strategy.
Why Europe and Canada are the Perfect Match
If you want to reduce your dependence on an unpredictable superpower, you have to find partners who still believe in the rule of law. That's exactly why Carney is spending so much time on European soil. This trip marks his ninth visit to Europe since becoming prime minister, and his strategy is simple: diversify before it's too late.
Breaking Down the Numbers
Canada and Europe already have a solid framework in place through the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), but its potential remains unfulfilled. Several European states, including Ireland, have dragged their feet on full ratification.
The economic stakes are massive:
- In 2025, bilateral merchandise trade between Canada and France reached $15.2 billion.
- Trade between Canada and Ireland sat at $6 billion last year, with Canada importing way more ($4.9 billion) than it exported ($1.1 billion).
- Ireland is set to assume the presidency of the Council of the European Union, making Dublin the absolute perfect English-speaking gateway for Canadian interests.
Carney and Martin previously agreed to push for Ireland's full ratification of CETA by the end of the year. Getting that deal locked down isn't just about cutting tariffs anymore. It's a defensive crouch against global market isolation.
The Battlefronts at the Évian G7 Summit
The G7 used to be a place where the world's richest democracies aligned their goals and put out a nice, neat joint statement at the end. Don't expect that this time around. Canadian officials have already leaked that there won't be a traditional joint communiqué from the leaders in Évian-les-Bains. Instead, we'll get a fragmented series of standalone statements.
Honestly, it's a G6 in everything but name right now. The remaining leaders are left figuring out how to handle an American administration that prefers unilateral action over cooperation. The friction points are everywhere, spanning technology, resources, and security.
1. The Artificial Intelligence Showdown
Carney and French President Emmanuel Macron want strict safeguards on artificial intelligence, specifically focusing on protecting children's data from exploitation online. Canada just introduced legislation to restrict social media for kids under 16, and Macron is fully on board with setting global standards.
Trump is pushing a completely different agenda. The U.S. approach focuses on aggressive, unregulated adoption of American-developed AI tools to maintain global dominance. It's a direct clash between regulation and market supremacy.
2. Lockdowns on Critical Minerals
If you want to build electric vehicles, advanced defense tech, or quantum computers, you need critical minerals. Right now, those supply chains are incredibly vulnerable.
Canada is trying to advance an action plan to secure these chains among allied nations. The goal is to build a closed loop of trusted partners so that a sudden trade embargo from an adversary can't freeze Western industrial or military manufacturing.
3. Geopolitical Traps
The backdrop to this summit is a massive escalation in the Middle East following the U.S.-Israeli offensive in Iran, which has sparked a global energy crisis and sent inflation spiking again. Europe and Canada are trying to get Washington to back a European-led plan to demine the Strait of Hormuz. Securing Trump's approval won't be easy, especially given his open criticism of NATO allies who aren't fully aligned with the U.S. military strategy.
Stop Waiting for Things to Return to Normal
The biggest mistake middle-power politicians and business leaders can make right now is treating this turbulence like a temporary phase. The old status quo isn't coming back. The world is carving itself into competing blocs, and the "countries in between" have to adapt or face economic irrelevance.
For businesses and policymakers, the next steps are clear:
- Diversify supply chains immediately. If your business relies heavily on a single market for raw materials or customer base, you're exposed to political whims. Look toward the Canada-EU corridor to build redundancies.
- Lean into values-based coalitions. Expect future trade advantages to be tied strictly to shared democratic values, data privacy compliance, and green transition metrics.
- Push for local ratification of pending trade deals. Business groups need to pressure lagging European governments to fully ratify CETA to remove lingering investment uncertainties.
The upcoming days in France will show just how fractured the West has become. Middle powers have plenty of economic weight when they stand together, but if they allow themselves to be divided and picked off one by one, they'll have no one to blame but themselves.
